tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5836245.post113627223949414986..comments2023-11-02T07:44:14.413-05:00Comments on Progressive Advocacy: Anderson on Illinois ignored by presidential electionsDan Johnsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07467295534995212259noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5836245.post-1136911203262309542006-01-10T10:40:00.000-06:002006-01-10T10:40:00.000-06:00Chicago opportunities on assumptions:http://simurl...Chicago opportunities on assumptions:<BR/><BR/>http://simurl.com/cc-gg-eeNathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10767522044256814468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5836245.post-1136568157298092622006-01-06T11:22:00.000-06:002006-01-06T11:22:00.000-06:00Decision making is interesting. One logical metho...Decision making is interesting. One logical method might be a decision tree, where outcomes and associated probabilities of outcomes are used to determine an expected best course of action.<BR/><BR/>Question: how does one determine probabilities of outcomes? <BR/>-Based on historical outcomes?<BR/>-Based on assumptions about future?<BR/>-Something else?<BR/><BR/>If not a decision tree, then how should one make decisions?<BR/><BR/>So I agree decision making with imperfect knowledge is different than assumptions. However, there may be a little bit of overlap or interaction - not sure (when a mgr has imperfect knowledge, a mgr assumes probabilities of outcomes when making decisions). <BR/><BR/>What do you think?Nathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10767522044256814468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5836245.post-1136563408620513592006-01-06T10:03:00.000-06:002006-01-06T10:03:00.000-06:00No problem Larry,,, I'm always looking for opportu...No problem Larry,,, I'm always looking for opportunities to use my assumptions story.<BR/><BR/>Assumptions and decision making with imperfect knowledge two different things as far as I'm concerned.<BR/><BR/>Always watch out with assumptions.<BR/><BR/>Anyways, I think the electoral college has served the US well and balances large and small states interests. <BR/><BR/>The Democrats have such a huge problem appealing to voteres in growing aspirational regions, that I don't think tinkering with the mechanics of elections is going to solve their problems (at that's really what this electoral college debate is about)... the party is struggling and this is not the solution.<BR/><BR/>This is a solution that doesn't get to the root of the problem or even identify it.<BR/><BR/>That's another thing one learns in decision making.Bill Baarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07095486926836836714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5836245.post-1136427533528293002006-01-04T20:18:00.000-06:002006-01-04T20:18:00.000-06:00Forget about taking away votes from the small stat...Forget about taking away votes from the small states. There are too many small states to permit a constitutional amendment to that effect. More modest reforms might have a chance than those requiring an amendment.FightforJusticehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12047239957724028210noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5836245.post-1136410719345947162006-01-04T15:38:00.000-06:002006-01-04T15:38:00.000-06:00BillYou have an interesting post on assumptions. ...Bill<BR/><BR/>You have an interesting post on assumptions. However, inevitably managers have to make estimates about the future based on something... <BR/><BR/>Assumptions do not have a monopoly when it comes to manager posterity. In addition to assumptions, some managers make themselves look silly.Nathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10767522044256814468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5836245.post-1136406016329346392006-01-04T14:20:00.000-06:002006-01-04T14:20:00.000-06:00The thing about Illinois in the last election is t...The thing about Illinois in the last election is that there was no doubt by either party who would win the state's electoral votes. So neither spent any time at all here. <BR/><BR/>Wouldn't it be far more beneficial to Illinois as far as having a voice in the presidency if they'd change the date of their primary? By the time Illinois has an election everything has been decided, By only two states, for the most part. That is the real problem. Frankly, I'd be in favor of a primary election day where all states vote the same day. This business of watching Iowa make the decision for the rest of the states is what is antiquated.Dianehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02030931734636783474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5836245.post-1136392366203772582006-01-04T10:32:00.000-06:002006-01-04T10:32:00.000-06:00Larry, Assumptions make an ass of you and me is wh...Larry, Assumptions make an <EM>ass of you and me</EM> is what an old boss used to tell me. Never make any was her order.<BR/><BR/>Yes, I favor affirmative action. Not much for quotas, but I think affirmative action has been a great success. I'm with Colin Powell on it... he's made very elequent case for it.<BR/><BR/>Also, for what ever it's worth, the University of Illinois Medical School has implemented affirmative action programs in a very effective way. They (together with the US Army) are great models of how it should be done.<BR/><BR/>Now what that has to do with the electoral college I don't know.Bill Baarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07095486926836836714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5836245.post-1136333495176995432006-01-03T18:11:00.000-06:002006-01-03T18:11:00.000-06:00Yeah, I think I was there. It is somewhat amazing...Yeah, I think I was there. It is somewhat amazing I made the event given I spent so much time trying hard (in my mind anyways) in non-partisan, business-related jobs.Nathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10767522044256814468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5836245.post-1136332992679706962006-01-03T18:03:00.000-06:002006-01-03T18:03:00.000-06:00I think it matters, philogee, because Illinois vot...I think it matters, philogee, because Illinois voters are not part of the 'general will' or the consensus-creating process that political campaigns become. Our views are different than Iowans or Wisconsinites or Missourians. And every vote should count. I think it's a myth, Bill Baar, that presidential elections would be fought in two or three big states if we used a national election. Gubernatorial and other statewide elections are *not* fought out in Chicago only. Candidates criss-cross the entire state. So why do you accept a process that results in only a few states picking the president -- exactly what you think would be the *bad* result if we used a national election? Thanks LazerLou. And Nathan, John Anderson did visit Chicago and hold court at Berghoff's a few years ago. I think you were there, weren't you?Dan Johnsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07467295534995212259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5836245.post-1136315472696310372006-01-03T13:11:00.000-06:002006-01-03T13:11:00.000-06:00Did Mr. Anderson visit Chicago years ago, and you ...Did Mr. Anderson visit Chicago years ago, and you (Dan) and others met him at Berghoff?Nathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10767522044256814468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5836245.post-1136312979637100172006-01-03T12:29:00.000-06:002006-01-03T12:29:00.000-06:00Not two or three large states, but major urban/sub...Not two or three large states, but major urban/suburban metropolitan areas. I see nothing wrong with that, as most of the people in our country live in such areas. Right now the moderate hicks from Ohio and Florida determine way too much, and frankly I'd rather it be skewed toward educated metro people who actually have to live with people who are different than they are, IF we don't get rid of the EC, I like Dan's idea to at least get rid of the small sate welfare and give them one elector instead of counting senators and giving them three.lazerlouhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11764179345327895438noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5836245.post-1136302813615718462006-01-03T09:40:00.000-06:002006-01-03T09:40:00.000-06:00I noticed I get these arguments for getting rid of...I noticed I get these arguments for getting rid of the electoral college from the same people who tell me Bush is trampling on the constitution. <BR/><BR/>They seem awfully quick to junk an institution which has served us pretty well.<BR/><BR/>Get rid of the electoral college and elections for the most powerful position in the world will be fought in just two or three large states.<BR/><BR/>That can't be a good idea.Bill Baarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07095486926836836714noreply@blogger.com