Thursday, October 28, 2004

Blogger Bowl II - my election predictions

Eric Zorn has launched Blogger Bowl II to test the predictive abilities of bloggers.

Last time, I underestimated the Obama vote, so I lost. Pretty big.

This time, I'm feeling the Audacity of Hope!

So here are my predictions.

1) Obama-Keyes spread.
That's right. 50 points will separate the Democratic nominee from the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. Unheard of! That would mean that all my younger Republican friends who tell me they will vote for Obama represent are part of a big, big movement. This is a fairly aggressive bet, since conventional wisdom holds that no major party candidate can sink below the 30% mark (and conversely, no candidate can break the 70% mark), but I'm feeling a surge for Barack. And that's without any get out the vote operation.

2) Electoral College spread. Kerry by 30.
I think there's a change surge coming over the next four days. I came up with my figures at this neat Electoral College calculator, that starts off with the Bush-Gore states adjusted for reapportionment. I think Kerry wins all the Gore states, and takes Ohio and New Hampshire as well. So Florida, Arizona and Colorado stays with Bush, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota stay with Kerry. New Hampshire is a bit of a long shot, but I think it joins up with the Northeast Deep Blue corridor and rejects the southern evangelicals that run the national GOP.

3) Tiebreaker: Keyes earns 23% of the vote. Obama earns 73% (wow), and Jerry Kohn and Al Franzen split the remaining 4% about evenly.

Now, I'll take the Blogger Bowl predictions one step further, and predict state legislative races. Maybe I'll run my own damn Blogger Bowl for those of us who participate in Illinois elections that are close. . . .

Yeah, that's a great idea. See if you can keep up with me, Zorn..

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